ARE YOU READY FOR THE SINGULARITY?
What is the Singularity?
A definition from The Singularity Institute web site, and some thoughts from Cryonet postersSometime in the next few years or decades, humanity will become capable of surpassing the upper limit on intelligence that has held since the rise of the human species. We will become capable of technologically creating smarter-than-human intelligence, perhaps through enhancement of the human brain, direct links between computers and the brain, or
Artificial Intelligence. This event is called the "Singularity" by analogy with the singularity at the center of a black hole - just as our current model of physics breaks down when it attempts to describe the center of a black hole, our model of the future breaks down once the future contains smarter-than-human minds. Since technology is the product of cognition, the Singularity is an effect that snowballs once it occurs - the first smart minds can create smarter minds, and smarter minds can produce still smarter minds.Bruce Waugh wrote "Definition of the Singularity" Wikipedia defines the Singularity this way:
In futures studies a technological singularity* represents an "event horizon" in the predictability of human
technological development past which present models of the future cease to give reliable or accurate answers, following the creation of strong artificial intelligence or the amplification of human intelligence predicts that after the Singularity, humans as they exist presently will cease to be the dominating force in scientific and technological progress, replaced with posthumans, strong AI, or both, and therefore all models of change based on past trends in human behavior will be obsolete.
The concept, put forth primarily by mathematician Vernor Vingeand inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts a drastic
increase in the rate of technological change following the liberation of consciousness from the confines of human biology, allowing it not only to scale past the computational capacity of the human brain but also to interact directly with computer
networks. Kurzweil considers this sharp increase to be part of an overall exponential trend in human technological development seen originally in Moore's Law and extrapolated into a general trend in Kurzweil's own Law of Accelerating Returns. A culture which experienced such a change would be fundamentally altered, and not be comprehensible or predictable by its pre-Singularity culture.
While some regard the Singularity as a positive event and work to hasten its arrival, others view the Singularity as dangerous, undesirable, or unlikely to occur. The most practical means for initiating the Singularity are debated, as are how (or whether) the Singularity can be influenced or avoided if dangerous.
From: James R Hughes, MD
Subject: another singularity thought
IMHO the "singularity" is ~40 years or more away. If we use implants and other technologies to merge human and machine, if it is only a small number of us, we will have some influence over the agenda of the "singularity". Granted only a small number of us would like to be cyborgs, but those that would could prevent a runaway scenario. I see more of a melding than singular
intelligence.
From: "Jordan Sparks"
Subject: RE: Singularity
OK, here's the meat of it. Anyone who's a computer programmer should appreciate that we are a long long way from computers doing anything remotely intelligent. To have a computer that could self evolve is even further away. You're talking about removing it from the vast manufacturing industry that is currently involved in improving the computer chip. Look at how many people it currently takes to make an improvement to a computer chip. Until the dependencies on others are vastly reduced, we are simply too far away from the singularity to predict anything about it. I am of the opinion that the dependencies on others will not be eliminated until we have complete and mature nanotechnology, in something like 120 years or more. Until then, groups of people and machines working together could always make improvements faster than any individual. So the world tyrant scenario is just silly. Please remember that we are at a very low level of technology right now.
Jordan Sparks
From: RAMole@aol.com
Subject: Singularity
I think a lot of people are missing the point of the Singularity.
The Singularity, as described by Vernor Vinge, is simply the emergence of a super intelligence so far beyond us that we cannot understand even its motivations. A dog watching a physicist discuss quantum theory by typing on a computer connected to the Internet has no idea what is going on, and when we deal with such a creature or creatures, neither will we. The dog can interact
with the physicist, share opinions about food, and there may be mutual fondness.
Nor will the man suddenly become malevolent -- that rarely goes with intelligence. In fact the dog will be safer and freer than in the wild state -- the man lets him run free through the woods and even ride in the back of a pickup truck - something no mere wolf ever gets to do! But the dog is still
puzzled about quantum physics.
We might reach the Singularity through many technologies. We might discover the genes for intelligence, put them all into an embryo, and produce children with 300 IQ's. We might manipulate them and produce 400 IQ's. The 400 IQ's would think what to do next, and from there all bets are off. In my experience when I talk to someone with a 5 IQ point advantage I can rarely tell them
anything they don't know, and 20 or 30 points is just awesome. As for a 400 IQ -- well, I could roll over and let her scratch my belly...
We could read out human minds and simulate them in a computer that runs thousands of times faster, and does not get distracted and communicates perfectly with other read-out minds. This would simply empower existing people, allowing a Richard Feinman to do a thousand years of thinking in a week (and where would *that* take us?!) We could let these minds meld.Or we could ignore all the wisdom of a hundred science fiction stories and build an intelligent computer with motivations for control and the power to take over the world, as people here seem to fear.
But what on earth would move us to do *that*? Anyway, the emergence of a Singularity primarily implies an intelligence so great it solves all our existing problems benevolently and brilliantly, and goes on to things we cannot even guess. It is that last part that is so interesting and exciting, and makes Vinge's books (especially A Fire Upon the
Deep) so provocative.
Alan
Robotic technology is advancing apace and now a top team of European scientists and engineers hope to make the leap from single function dumb machines to adaptive learning machines.
The concept of a cognitive robotic companion inspires some of the best science fiction but one day may be science fact following the work of the four-year COGNIRON project funded since January 2004 by the IST’s Future and Emerging Technologies initiative. But what could a cognitive robot companion do?
"Well, that's a difficult question. The example that's often used is a robot that's able to fulfil your needs, like passing you a drink or helping in everyday tasks," says Dr Raja Chatila, research director at the Systems Architecture and Analysis Laboratory of the French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (LAAS-CNRS), and COGNIRON project coordinator.
"That might seem a bit trivial, but let me ask you a question: In the 1970s, what was the use of a personal computer?" he asks. It's a good point. In fact, it was then impossible to imagine how PCs would change the world's economics, politics and society in just 30 years.
The eventual uses, once the technology developed, were far from trivial.
COGNIRON set out on the same principle, given that society is constantly evolving, and the project partners hope to tackle some of the key issues that need to be resolved for the development of a cognitive robot companion, which could be used as assistants for disabled and elderly people or the general population.
Who wouldn't like, for instance, their breakfast ready when they awoke, deliveries accepted while they were at work and their apartment cleaned upon their return? Kurzweilnet