CHAPTER X
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Almost every commodity, however desirable or necessary, if it is not an immediate necessity, needs to be "sold," whether it is life insurance, food, medicine, or anything else. If respiration were not reflex, many people would have to be given a hard sell to draw a breath of air. Immortality itself will have to be "sold" to enough people to start the freezer programs.
Will tomorrow really be better? Is it worth the struggle? If we agree that it will become possible to mould personality, then logically this alone should assure an affirmative answer; we can all be made into jolly, as well as jolly good, fellows. Still, we would like some assurance that the external changes will be worth while also.
In the previous chapter we talked about the uses of immortality in the most general terms, and of course detailed prediction on a long-term basis is entirely out of the question. However, it will be amusing to spell out a few of the shorter-range possibilities, and it may help make the prospect seem more real and personal. There will be no attempt here to be systematic, let alone exhaustive.
Before beginning this sketchy catalogue, it might be well to give just a hint of the more distant future-not by indicating anything that will be in it, for this is hopeless, but by specifying something that will not.
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A favorite bromide of writers is that "human nature doesn't change." But the manifestations of human nature vary rather widely with cultural differences, as we know, e.g., from studies of identical twins reared separately; and soon there will be changes in its biological basis as well, with results beyond guessing.
It is true that we still read Beowulf, and the Iliad, and Hamlet, and many scholars blithely assume that these and similar works will remain in our culture forever. But in the last thirty or forty thousand years, the supposed tenure of modern man on earth, cultural changes have been relatively small, and biological changes virtually nil. In the next few centuries, the changes will be incomparably greater.
I am convinced that in a few hundred years the words of Shakespeare, for example, will interest us no more than the grunting of swine in a wallow. (Shakespearean scholars, along with censors, snuff grinders, and wig makers, will have to find new, perhaps unimaginable occupations.) Not only will his work be far too weak in intellect, and written in too vague and puny a language, but the problems which concerned him will be, in the main, no more than historical curiosities. Neither greed, nor lust, nor ambition will in that society have any recognizable similarity to the qualities we know. With the virtually unlimited resources of that era, all ordinary wants will be readily satisfied, either by supplying them or by removing them in the mind of the individual. Furthermore, if civilization will have survived that long amid the titanic forces available, it would seem that satisfactory modes of living and mutual accommodation must have been worked out. Competitive drives, in the inter-
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personal sense, may or may not persist; but if they do, it will be in radically modified form.
It is impossible to say whether most of us will be resuscitated before or after man has worked really drastic changes in himself. My own guess is that most of us now living will be frozen by non-damaging methods, and the reversal of aging will be easier than a complete redesigning and rebuilding of the brain and body, and we can therefore expect to awaken while people are still more or less human. Let us then cast a few glances into the middle distance, and try to perceive some of the facets of life in this period.
As already suggested, the prospect of immortality should provide a strong damper on rash and impetuous action and anti-social behaviour. National leaders will want to preserve their own skins, and will be forced to take a much longer view. A temporary advantage will become unimportant. Everyone's life will depend on the steady functioning of the freezers, and hence on the reliability of economic and administrative institutions. No one will be excessively greedy, in the knowledge that soon he will be stiff and cold and at the mercy of his successors, whose good will be dare not endanger.
In the era of the freezers, and still more markedly when immortality has actually been realized, there will be very salutary effects on interpersonal behaviour. Our actions will be strongly influenced by the realization that not only ourselves, but the other fellow also, will be around a long time. The people we meet in business life and in casual encounters of every kind can no longer be counted upon to fade away and disappear; instead, our paths may cross repeatedly in a long future dimly seen. All business becomes "repeat" business; there are no more one-shots.
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The Golden Rule then becomes not an ideal but a necessity, and there may well occur a Golden Age of morality and ethics, with every man counting every other his friend and neighbor.
(Some wiseacre is sure to ask what happens when a masochist tries to apply the Golden Rule. But it is not claimed either that the Rule is always crystal clear, or, even if it were, that the disposition to apply it would automatically liquidate dissension, but only that the Rule is on the whole a good one, and its general application would be a large step in the right direction.)
Possibilities of Stagnation and Decadence
Speculating about the ways of immortals, some writers have worried about decadence engendered by the excessive caution and timidity of those who are potentially immortal but vulnerable to accident. It has been conjectured that society would be emasculated, that new ventures would cease, that every citizen might eschew risks of all kinds-even refusing so much as to use vehicles for fear of an eventual accident.
This kind of development seems to me highly unlikely. In the second place, medical art will necessarily be so far advanced that few kinds of accident could result in permanent death. In the first place, creative drives and competitive pressures will persist in some form, and can be depended upon to keep the yeast fermenting nicely. As always, those who refuse risks and challenges will probably sooner or later be trampled into the ground -perhaps in a humane and genteel way, but firmly. As the lyricist says, "It's not the earth the meek inherit, but the dirt."
Even exceptionally dangerous jobs are not likely to go begging. A worthy cause, high pay, and glory will find at least a few takers for a long time to come.
More serious and sinister is the threat of decadence through strange and sophisticated new forms of seduction. We already
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have large numbers of "TV bums" with bent spines, bloated bellies, and stupefied minds from endless hours of slouching, snacking, and staring. Will an ordinary man be able to withstand the temptation to sit in a corner all day and tickle himself with ESB? What will happen when the circuits of the brain are well understood, and hallucinations of the most convincing reality can be made to order, so that a man can rent a tape, put on his Dreamie helmet, and experience the part of the hero in a romantic adventure?
No neat and easy answer seems possible here. In China there actually are derelict souls who spend all their time in opium dens, if they can manage it. But this kind of activity would seem to be more or less self-limiting, since no one can retire from the world altogether without having someone else to look after him and his affairs.
It has been speculated that in a Golden Age criminals will be "cured" rather than punished. This notion seems to me faulty, or at least dubious, in three respects.
First, we cannot yet say for sure that every criminal is actually sick. He may be a healthy man who has decided (perhaps rightly!) that his interests and those of society do not coincide.
Second, even if antisocial behavior invariably resulted from a specific, curable disease, it would still be necessary to impose punishment for its deterrent effect. It is true that in medieval England petty crime flourished in spite of cruel punishments, and that crimes of impulse and passion are difficult to deter, and that many criminals are repeaters; but without deterrence the situation would be much worse, and the proposition remains generally valid.
Third, the general psychological atmosphere, and the feelings
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of the victims of wrongdoing, may for a long time demand traditional ideas of "justice," including its aspect of revenge.
It will become possible, in some sense and under some kind of interpretation, at last to make the punishment fit the crime. Culprits may be made to suffer all that their victims have suffered, and to make complete restitution. Would-be adventurers, exploiters, tyrants, and rogues will be curbed by fear of society's revenge: they will have much more to fear than death. There will be no more attitude of "might as well be hanged for a sheep as a lamb." If a tyrant causes a thousand people to be half starved for a year, he might be punished by being half starved himself for a thousand years-perhaps with a couple of centuries off for good behaviour, or such other modification as would not weaken the deterrent principle.
It was indicated in Chapter VII that birth control will almost certainly sooner or later become de rigeur, at least for a certain period in history, and that this would happen even without freezers and immortality, simply because of the problem of natural increase. The availability and general practice of birth control by methods less clumsy than those now in general use - e.g., pills for either man or woman-and the much smaller average size of families and much smaller fraction of children in the population, will have many effects in many areas of life. But another development, seldom yet discussed, will have even larger effects.
Research proceeds apace on techniques of "ectogenesis," or the raising of "test tube" babies in artificial wombs instead of allowing normal gestation in the body of the mother. It is also foreseen that it will be possible to produce a child with only one parent, which could be either a man or a woman. (119) Such a parthenogenetic child, since it would have the same genetic
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make-up as its parent, would in a sense be a twin as well as off- spring.
Ordinarily, one presumes, a child will have two parents. Few of us are so vain as to desire our children to be duplicates of ourselves. But ectogenesis will certainly become the rule: when it becomes available, what woman will prefer the ordeal of "carrying" and delivering a child?
At present, of course, many women will not admit the ordeal is disgusting, and may even insist it is "beautiful." But this is obviously just a psychological trick, making a virtue of necessity. One might just as well claim our methods of waste elimination are beautiful.
There will, of course, be a transition period and a rear-guard of opposition to this practice. Its opponents will be the same kind of people as those who howled against the use of anaesthesia in childbirth when this was first introduced, claiming it was ''unnatural,'' and that it was "intended'' for women to suffer as punishment for their sins, and that mother love would be reduced if the pain of childbirth were removed.
Fathers love their children as much as mothers, without carry- ing or delivering them, and there will be no loss in this respect when ectogenesis becomes the rule. But there will be profound social changes.
Essentially, motherhood will be abolished. A child will usually not have a father and a mother, but instead will have two "fathers," one male and one female. The word "mother" may or may not persist, but its essence - gestation and delivery - will be gone. (Nursing is already a nearly abandoned custom in many communities.)
The differences between men and women will then be at a minimum. Most of the present differences are cultural, and the difference in physical size is of little importance; there is more difference in size between certain races of man than there is be-
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tween men and women of the same race. Women will obtain genuine equality in almost all spheres.
In sex relations, women may become universally the aggressors. After all, they are not as definitely limited in capacity as are men; and when women need no longer fear pregnancy, the traditional roles of "taker" and "giver" may be reversed.
On the other hand, full equality may be restored by the discovery of ways to give men unlimited virility.
These developments need not be regarded as especially alarming. Sex is only a part of life, and not the most important part. Its problems form only a part of the enormous package of problems we must wrap up.
The relaxed sexual habits that may develop do not seem likely to eliminate family life nor demolish the institution of marriage. It may become customary to experiment more or less promiscuously early in life, and marry at a later time than is usual now. But most people will still want children. Even in the absence of children, marriage serves an important purpose, as we know from the many successful childless marriages, and still more from the many successful marriages of divorced and widowed people whose children are grown and gone. Most people, sooner or later in life, want and need the stability, comfort, and security of a relationship which neither friends nor blood relatives can supply.
The Question of Non-human Intelligent Entities
Modes and standards of conduct and intercourse may have to be developed with respect to intelligent creatures other than human. The three outstanding possibilities seem to concern the dolphins, robots, and extraterrestrial life forms.
It has been ascertained that dolphins have brains larger and more complex than those of men. Some investigators believe the dolphins, despite their lack of hands and artifacts, may be truly
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intelligent, and can perhaps be taught to communicate. (60) If this is true, we may eventually have to share the planet with them, and perhaps with some of their cousins, the whales.
With respect to thinking machines, the problem is much thornier. To begin with, even though the philosophical notion of dualism has been singularly unproductive and the dualists in more or less steady retreat, nevertheless the mind-body problem remains unresolved. And even if we forget about dualism, it remains conceivable that a "machine" made of meat and gravy may have modes of existence not available to a machine of tubes and wires. That is, it is conceivable - although I think it farfetched - that regardless of their problem-solving, decision-making, and goal-seeking abilities, machines will never be worthy of the appellation "living." But if we can find an appropriate test for the first thinking machine, Adam MacElectrosap, and discover he really does have awareness and essential life, then we shall be faced with a tough moral problem in deciding whether to keep him enslaved. (MAChine, ELECTROnic, SAPient, of course.)
We may also face a tough practical problem in deciding whether it is safe to keep him at all, enslaved or not. The possibility, celebrated in many a gruesome story, that our creations may some day turn on us and overwhelm us, is a real one. Professor Wiener, for example, believes that machines may not inevitably remain subject to man. (101)
After all, intelligent machines will necessarily have some degree of independence, initiative, and unpredictability - this is inherent in their intelligence, and this is why they are of value. Can we hope to control such entities, which will be in many respects, and perhaps in most respects, superior to ourselves? P> The answer is not obvious. On the one hand, it is by no means unknown for the inferior intellect to dominate the superior. Greek scholars were held as slaves by Roman farmers. In certain environments, a tiger can kill a man. And it is perhaps conceivable
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that a mind could be massive and brilliant, yet mild and submissive. On the other hand, there must remain an element of doubt. One suspects that, sooner or later, the greater mind will have its way.
It is clear that no rules, no restraints, no restrictions can be relied upon; and of course it matters not at all that the machine has no direct physical powers or access to weapons. The ma- chine, if it is to function, must be allowed to communicate, and if it can communicate it can probably persuade, and that is all that is necessary.
To realize just how bad the situation could he, we need only reflect that we may not even know where our interests lie! The machine will know what is best for us, and what is best for itself, and what courses of action are appropriate for these respective goals; but we may know none of these things, and be forced to rely on the machine!
The remedy, as hinted earlier, may lie in coupling a human brain to the machine, either permanently or occasionally. If the circuits can be integrated so that the machine is only an extension and enlargement of the man s mind, then the situation may be under control. This would also represent a new level of life for the man, an experience we can hardly imagine.
Finally, turning to the question of possible extraterrestrial life, we find a riddle of awesome proportions. Where is everybody? Since the known universe contains at least 100,000,000 galaxies, with each galaxy numbering from 100,000,000 to 100,000,000,000 or more stars, and since most of these are at least several billion years old, some scientists think life must have developed on a great many worlds, and that in fact intelligent life must exist right now on a myriad alien worlds.
Yet it is not true that "science agrees" there must be intelligent life on many worlds; the consensus of science appears to be uncertainty. (57) There does seem to be fairly good evidence
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that many stars have planets, that many of these may be suitable for life as we know it, and that under suitable circumstances life will probably arise. But there seems to be a possibility that most planets suitable for life have no land surface. More important, there seem to be no very securely based calculations to find the probability of intelligence developing from life, or civilization from intelligence. Therefore we must not be awed by the fact that the universe contains probably over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars; the probability of civilization having developed in one of these systems could easily be much less than one in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
If civilizations are common, then civilizations in advance of ours should also be common-but in that case, why have there been no visitors? I know of no convincing explanation. The three most common suggestions are: (1) Time is too vast; all our neighbours are either far behind us or far ahead of us in development, and in either case cannot be expected to traffic with us; (2) Space is too vast, and because of the limiting velocity of light, and perhaps unknown dangers, interstellar travel is forever impractical; (3) "They" exist, and know about us, but just don't give a damn, or are watching but not interfering.
All three suggestions seem implausible in light of our own psychology and prospects. As we indicated in Chapter VII, the Golden Age will bring essentially unlimited wealth, with matter and energy freely available, and organization, in the form of thinking machines, also virtually unlimited. Then surely we will either scout the universe ourselves, or send out drone vehicles to investigate and report. If we find life, we will monitor it and take over its guidance and development, either out of charity or wariness. We will not allow fellow creatures to stumble on in misery, or develop into threats. The size of the universe means nothing: we have all the stars to tap for matter and energy, and
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our thinking machines can propagate themselves to any necessary number.
Certain dark suggestions have been made about the fate of man, and of those others who have failed to visit us. Perhaps civilizations that reach a high technological level always destroy themselves. Perhaps the fundamental problems of philosophy have no solution, and the final reward of progress is only the fullness of the realization that nothing matters; after the fruit ripens, the next stage may not be super-ripeness, but rot. But such pessimistic thoughts as these are premature, to say the least. For the present, let us simply acknowledge that the mystery remains a mystery, and also that we may, in fact, be ourselves the universe's elder race.
In any case, we gaze at the night sky and see the stars like dust, and reflect: either we are all alone in this vast universe, or else somewhere out there are other thinking beings, whom we may one day meet. Either way, it gives one pause.
Even the richest men of earlier times lacked many of the things available to the ordinary American and European today. These include: fast communication, fast travel, relatively reliable justice, accessible information, reliable emergency services such as fire and police departments, efficient plumbing, weather fore- casts, insurance policies, loans on reasonable terms, dentistry, air conditioning, out of season foods, eyeglasses, anaesthesia, and many other kinds of medical services and medicines. Certainly happiness is not directly proportional to wealth, comfort, safety, and peace of mind, but there is nevertheless a correlation.
Likewise we today are virtual paupers, compared to what we will be as resuscitees. Many extremely important goods, services,
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and modes of living will be available that do not exist today; some of these have already been indicated.
In addition to the qualitatively new things, there will soon be much available which requires essentially no technological advances or breakthroughs whatever-which requires, in fact, nothing except more work, more production, more automation, more wealth, of a kind that already exists, and ordinary progress.
Cities may be weather controlled, if necessary by covering the streets with retractable roofs; the air and the streets will be kept clean and sanitary. A half inch of snow will not tie up traffic. Hay fever and other allergy victims will have relief.
Safety and law enforcement in cities may be greatly improved in several ways. Public places may be monitored by recorded television, to speed assistance and to preserve evidence. (For ex- ample, all vehicular traffic may be continuously filmed, unless the legislatures decide the infringement of privacy is an overriding consideration.) Homes and even individuals may carry small emergency signal units, which could summon ambulances, firemen, police, tow-trucks, freezer technicians, etc. This might be combined with wrist radios, in the manner of Dick Tracy.
Honesty in private and public employment may be promoted by the use of periodic routine lie detector tests, covering prescribed areas, to ensure that trust has not been violated, as a condition of employment. Nothing helps morality so much as removing temptation. Of course, the legislatures may decide that this is akin to forcing a man to testify against himself, and disallow it, especially since it might be required of the legislators as well.
Full-coverage liability insurance may be available and compulsory, so that everyone will be financially responsible, and collectible in case he commits any kind of wrong. Those whose records indicate they are poor risks will be insured by the state, but their activities may be restricted.
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The Department of Health, Education and Welfare in the United States, and similar agencies elsewhere, may take in- creased responsibility for family life and training. At present, children are produced and raised usually by unskilled labour; little human beings are at the mercy of ignoramuses and brutes. The children will probably not, except in extreme cases, be taken from the parents, since it seems generally agreed that even a good orphan asylum is worse than even a rather had family. But heavy pressure will be exerted to force parents to educate themselves and qualify themselves as parents, and the children will be protected through some kind of routine inspection.
Justice will be more uniform, more reliable, and cheaper. The absurd system of punishment typified by "thirty dollars or thirty days" will be discarded. Jail may be used only for people who are physically dangerous, or who may do irreparable damage, and not for those guilty of crimes strictly against property or of technical offenses such as violation of the anti-trust laws. Offenses in the latter category may be dealt with by fines linked to ability to pay, with credit given if necessary, and by supervised probation or restriction of activities. The rules of evidence will be drastically revised and modernized to allow a more logical evaluation of probabilities. The "reasonable doubt" rule may be replaced by a formula based on percentage probabilities.
Our republic could be transformed into a democracy, or perhaps a weighted democracy, through electronics. Every home might have a voting machine attachment built into its TV set, capable of identifying citizens by their fingerprints or retinal patterns or whatnot, and able to record and transmit votes. With the awkward machinery of voting thus streamlined, it might become practical to submit every important issue to referendum. Conceivably, the machine might first test the voter, and allow him to vote only if he proves he understands the issue reasonably well. It is also possible, as previously hinted, that
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the one-man-one-vote rule may be modified, giving a man instead a variable number of votes, depending on such things as his knowledge and the degree to which the issue affects him. (Admittedly, such notions would raise complex problems-but so did the replacement of buggies by autos, and so do most advances. The problems must be met and solved, and not dodged.)
Transcontinental super-sonic subways, with fares low relative to average income, will allow everyone holidays and vacations in the mountains, forest reserves, or on either shore. In town, similar systems will fractionate commuting time.
The dull and unpleasant jobs will either be eliminated by automation, or compensated by shorter hours or higher pay. It is even possible that before very long all citizens will be allowed a basic income just for breathing, although jobs would be available for the qualified and would provide additional income. Perhaps the one inescapable form of work, and the main duty of all citizens, will be participation in political processes.
Those who find the mid-twentieth century a little lacking may well take heart. We have hardly begun to live.